iPhone Air may not be selling well

Right on schedule, the annual report that Apple is cutting iPhone orders is in. This time, it’s supposedly the fault of the iPhone Air‘s weak demand, although with no actual evidence.

As the delayed release of the iPhone Air in China is said to have sold out in moments, another report claims that the device is a relative failure. It’s not the first claim that demand is less than Apple predicted, but it is the first to specify how Apple is responding.

According to Mizuho Securities of Japan — as spotted by The Elec, Apple is revising its manufacturing orders. By the end of 2025, the claim says that Apple will order:

• 1 million fewer of the iPhone Air
• 2 million more of the iPhone 17
• 1 million more of the iPhone 17 Pro
• 4 million more of the iPhone 17 Pro Max

The investment firm also says that Apple has already increased its overall production from 88 million to 94 million units.

However, these figures do not appear to be based on any particular information. There is no citing of supply chain sources, for instance, and the analysts appear to lean heavily on words like “predicted.”

Impossible to tell

The problem is that even if analysts have a good source in the supply chain, they won’t have many of them. Since Apple can — and does — move orders around, it’s not possible to be certain of the situation.

Plus Apple never releases any figures concerning either iPhone production plans or sales. And what it does do, every year, is adjust the proportions of which models it manufactures.

Even that can’t be entirely ascribed to fluctuating demand, though. Apple knows, for instance, that every year it is the top of the range model that sells the most at launch.

That then usually tapers off and demand shifts to the other models — or most recently to the iPhone 16e in Spring 2025.

Consequently, the production of each iPhone model inevitably changes throughout the year. It may well be that iPhone Air sales are weak, but that can’t be determined without significant sources.

Note that Mizuho Securities has no track record in Apple analysis. It may be working to turn that around, though, as it has now also predicted a delay for the iPhone Fold.