Apple Weather is probably wrong about how much snow you’re going to get

A large chunk of the United States is set to face a massive winter storm this weekend. In the lead up to that, many people have turned to the Weather app on their iPhone for forecasts.

The problem? The forecasts are often outlandish and inconsistent. Here’s why.

Why Apple Weather is wrong

When a meteorologist crafts a forecast, they pull data from multiple weather models, most of which update several times a day, as well as guidance from the National Weather Service.

Meteorologists also wait to put together a specific forecast with snowfall predictions until closer to the actual event. A lot can change between when the first signs of a weather event show up on early models and the actual system moving through.

A good meteorologist also refrains from posting raw data from models on social media as doing so often causes panic.

Apple Weather, meanwhile, will gladly show you a “forecast” with snow totals up to 10 days in advance. The problem is that weather models don’t have a grasp on the specifics of a system that far in advance, and Apple Weather lacks that nuance.

This is where things get messy and you see pictures on social media of Apple Weather predicting over 30 inches of snow for cities on the east coast.

A report from The New York Times today highlights how this is because Apple Weather doesn’t take into account all the necessary information when showing these numbers:

Many weather apps show the results from a single forecast model, instead of the many that meteorologists will draw from in preparing their reports. The app pulls raw data and delivers it to the palm of your hand, but often without context that allows for the other possibilities. Sometimes, that ends up being the right one, and sometimes not.

On its website, Apple outlines the various data sources it uses for Apple Weather, including the National Weather Service, The Weather Channel, and NOAA. Still, Apple Weather largely just ingests this information and presents it without proper context.

“I think 95%+ of the meteorological community would be happy if Apple Weather disappeared,” Marc Weinberg, a meteorologist for WDRB in Louisville, Kentucky posted on social media this week. “That app is just a disaster for the weather enterprise.”

What weather app should you use?

Apple Weather is still useful for near-term forecasts and features like severe weather alerts.

Realistically, however, the best approach is to have multiple sources for your weather forecast — especially during potential severe weather situations. My advice is to download the apps from your local weather stations. You can usually find these by visiting your local news websites and include handcrafted forecasts from real people.

One of my favorite third-party apps is Carrot Weather, which lets you chose between multiple different sources and has a highly-customizable design. Mercury Weather is another great choice. I personally use an app called Clarity from BAM Weather.

But with all of that said, it’s clear a massive winter storm system is about to engulf much of the country. Stay safe, stay warm, and make sure you’re prepared for power outages, ice, and snow.

What weather app do you use? Let us know down in the comments.

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