M5 MacBook Pro, iPad Pro M5 rumor

New guesswork, relayed by a sketchy rumor-monger, claims that the M5-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro very soon. Apple’s historical schedules say the predictions are probably right.

Take the fact that model numbers for the M5 iPad Pro and M5 MacBook Pro were leaked by the FCC. Add in that a Russian YouTuber may have the new iPad Pro already.

And then there’s the report that stocks of both devices are reportedly dwindling.

All in all, if you ever wanted to predict that Apple would release new devices shortly, right now is second only to saying September will see new iPhones. And if you want to narrow the time down, you could count on your fingers that there are 15 weekdays left in October.

Consequently, while the latest rumor about Apple’s M5 product launches in October 2025 isn’t based on anything new, it’s also probably right. It’s likely that Apple will release some or all of the claimed list, which reads:

• M5 14-inch MacBook Pro
• M5 iPad Pro
• M5 Apple Vision Pro
• Apple TV 4K
• HomePod mini 2
• AirTags 2

We’re sold on iPad Pro and MacBook Pro with just M5, not Pro or Max, coming in mid-October. We’re less sold on the rest being imminent.

The new rumor takes a gamble and says that these will all be released without an event. It says that they will be released beginning either October 13, or October 14.

It also specifies that the devices will be released weekly, though if the translation were literally true, that would take up to the end of November.

50/50 shot on Apple having an October event

In the last 25 years, Apple has held an October event 13 times. Nine of those have been on October 20 or later, so it’s close to 50/50 whether there is an event or not.

And it’s odds-on that any event will be in the second half of the month. That makes sense, too, because any sooner would be right on the heels of the announcement of the new iPhones, and their arriving in stores.

Apple’s October events

• October 30, 2023: MacBook Pro M3, iMac M3
• October 18, 2021: M1 Max and M1 Pro processors, 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro, AirPods
• October 13, 2020: iPhone 12, HomePod mini
• October 30, 2018: MacBook Air, Mac mini, iPad Pro
• October 27, 2016: MacBook Pro
• October 16, 2014: iPad Air 2, iPad mini 3, iMac 5K

The last October event was in 2023’s “Scary Fast” one that introduced the M3 MacBook Pro and 24-inch M3 iMac.

Over the last ten years, there have been six October events, with all but one being about the Mac. The exception is 2020, when COVID had pushed the iPhone 12 launch into that month.

Otherwise, October was consistently a Mac event, except in 2014 and 2018 when there were also iPads.

October press release launches

• October 15, 2024: iPad mini
• October 28, 2024: M4 iMac
• October 29, 2024: M4 Mac mini
• October 30, 2024: M4 Pro and M4 Max processors, MacBook Pro
• October 18, 2022: M2 iPad Pro, base iPad

For 2024’s release of M4 devices, Apple did a series of press releases. First up was October 15, 2024’s launch of the iPad mini, but then there was what Apple claimed would be a week of releases.

In the end, it was a three-day week, but it brought us the M4 Pro and M4 Max processors. It brought us the M4 versions of the MacBook Pro, Mac mini, and the 24-inch iMac.

For 2022, there was the update to the iPad lineup. Again launched with a press release, the base iPad now came in more colors, and iPad Pro gained the M2 processor.

In 2019, the first AirPods Pro were launched by press release right at the end of October. That seems to have been the start of major launches via press release, although again COVID made it more practical for the next couple of years.

To launch or not in October

If you add in both events and press releases, Apple has launched significant devices every October for the last five years.

Of course Apple can launch on whatever schedule it decides. But that schedule is pushed by the engineering and production of the devices, and it’s pulled by how there are optimum times to release new devices.

The reason that the iPhone moved from June to September from 2011 was that this positioned it for the Christmas holiday season. If September gives time to build up iPhone sales for the holidays, then October is surely a prime month too.

Then there is also just the practical you have to deal with when you are shipping millions of items all around the world. Tim Cook has always been famously a master of supply chain logistics, but there are physical limits.

Apple’s whole supply and distribution network has been made more complex this year, too, with Trump’s unpredictable tariffs.

But even without Apple having to upend its global networks, there would be a logjam with Apple updating nearly everything in September. So making an October launch both positions devices for the holiday buying quarter, and evens out the load on shipping.

Regardless, we’ll all see how accurate the guess-work is very soon.