Apple is probably stuck with iPhone manufacture in India

Even though the markets have become mostly numb to the current administration’s tariff see-saw, one analyst is worried that Apple may have to maintain India iPhone imports regardless.

India has become a bit of a safe haven for Apple. It started moving more manufacturing and assembly to the country after COVID disrupted its China-reliant supply chain, but the move has proven fruitful to combat excessive and random tariff policy in the United States.

That safety, however, is under threat from another random thought exhaled by US President Trump — a potential 25% tariff on India. While the market barely blinked, as it is used to these proclamations being walked back later, analysts at Evercore are somewhat concerned.

According to an analyst note from Evercore, viewed by AppleInsider, Apple’s investment in India may prevent it from adjusting assembly and import easily if a 25% tariff is enacted. They estimate that India accounts for about 20% of all iPhone shipments, most of which go to the United States, and that equates to about $40 billion.

Whatever tariff is announced for India will have a dramatic effect on Apple’s bottom line, as the company may have no choice but to absorb its impact. Whether or not this means passing the cost to the customer isn’t mentioned in the report.

Apple is caught between a rock and a hard place when it comes to the United States tariff policy. It is impossible to assemble iPhones at scale in the United States today, and could take decades to get there.

Even if a magic wand could be waved and factories and trained employees could fill the Grand Canyon tomorrow, all of the parts would still need to be imported, which would be hit by tariffs anyway.

Extreme tariffs on China forced Apple to reconfigure its supply chain so final assembly for iPhones destined for the United States could occur in India. If high tariffs are levied against India, Apple has nowhere else to go in the short term.

Whether or not President Trump blinks again or implements excessive tariffs on India, Evercore maintains its position on Apple. It holds its outperform rating and $250 price target.